Arizona Republic doesn't endorse Kyrsten Sinema
Kyrsten Sinema like to think she is wanted by the people but
in this Arizona Republic article they did not give Kyrsten Sinema their
endorsement.
Of course an endorsement by the Arizona Republic and $1 will get
you a cup of coffee at McDonalds, so a Republic endorsement isn't
worth squat!
Source
Our picks for Arizona primaries
Aug. 24, 2012 05:59 PM
The Republic | azcentral.com
Arizona's primary elections wrap up Tuesday, when voters cast ballots and procrastinators drop off early ballots at polling places.
Here are condensed versions of our congressional and legislative endorsements. Full versions, as well as stories and questionnaires, can be found at votersguide.azcentral.com.
U.S. Senate
In an era in which Republicans are pining for true conservatives, they have the practically perfect real deal in Jeff Flake. His record raises other concerns -- can he get over his reluctance to wade into Arizona-specific matters? -- but that record is grounded in his conservative principles.
U.S. House
District 1, Republican: Of the four GOP contenders, only Jonathan Paton has the resume to mount a credible campaign in the general election against Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick.
District 2, Democrat: U.S. Rep. Ron Barber has established himself as a politician with a keen sense of what his constituents want.
District 4, Republican: U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar has learned lawmaking honestly -- by doing his committee homework and working on legislation that has proved valuable.
District 5, Republican: His experience in Congress from 1994 to 2000 makes Matt Salmon the best choice for Republicans in this district.
District 6, Republican: In his single term in Congress, U.S. Rep. David Schweikert has not disappointed the conservative faithful.
District 9, Republican: Eight years on a large-city council, dealing with downtown revitalization and the recruitment of a multinational corporation, gives Martin Sepulveda training for the hardball world of Washington.
Democrat: State Sen. David Schapira has the leadership skills and political mooring Democratic and independent voters may want and a natural affinity for the district.
State Legislature
District 12 House: Incumbent Eddie Farnsworth and former state Sen. Larry "Lucky" Chesley get the nod.
District 15 House: Heather Carter is a rising star at the Capitol. Voters' best pick among the other three candidates is John Allen.
District 16 House: The district that includes Arizona State University Polytechnic and Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport needs lawmakers who can go to bat for education and business expansion. Republicans Jeff Davis, a teacher, and Doug Coleman, a former Apache Junction mayor, would be those representatives.
Senate: Republican Sen. Rich Crandall is moderate and forward-thinking. No one else in the Legislature knows more about education reform.
District 25 Senate: Republican Bob Worsley has ample business acumen and an eager ear to listen.
District 23 House: Jennifer Petersen, a two-term member of the Scottsdale school board, is a common-sense Republican focused on real issues, pragmatic solutions and a complete disinterest in ideologically driven bills.
District 24 Senate: Ken Cheuvront's advocacy of reform of the state's tax code has earned him accolades.
House: Minority Leader Chad Campbell is among the best political tacticians in Arizona. Lela Alston brings deep political and policy understanding to the Legislature.
District 26 House: None of the four Republicans has the necessary knowledge or energy to represent this dynamic Tempe-west Mesa district.
District 30 Senate: Independent-minded Sen. Robert Meza's multifaceted, job-focused approach to lawmaking is well suited to the needs of this district.
House: Debbie McCune-Davis is a longtime state lawmaker with a history of delivering services to children and families. Mike Snitz, a marketing specialist, understands that money may not guarantee results in public schools, but a chronically underfunded school system guarantees failure.
Racist Russell Pearce won't be back for a while
According to this
article
racist, police state thug Russell Pearce lost in the primary election
and won't be back to terrify Arizonans with his racist anti-Mexican
politics.
Source
Worsley beats Russell Pearce in Mesa Senate race
by Gary Nelson - Aug. 29, 2012 07:49 AM
The Republic | azcentral.com
Recalled Senate President Russell Pearce won't be returning to the state Legislature, at least not this year.
Pearce lost Tuesday's Republican Senate primary race in Mesa's Legislative District 25 race to businessman Bob Worsley.
The election defeat could spell the end of the political career of Pearce, a national lion in the fight against illegal immigration who was ousted from the Senate last year in a historic recall election.
Worsley, the founder of SkyMall and several other companies, was recruited by moderate Republicans to block Pearce's attempted comeback. Worsley won the race with 56 percent of the votes, 12,789, to Pearce's 44 percent, 10,086.
Worsley will face Democrat Greg Gadek in November's legislative District 25 Senate race. Gadek, a political rookie, faces a steep uphill climb in the overwhelmingly Republican district.
Pearce, 65, banned reporters and photographers from attending his election-night party at Rockin' R Ranch, an Old West dinner theater in southeast Mesa. He refused to come out of the event and make a comment as the results began rolling in. His gathering was to have featured several other candidates from the "tea party" wing of the GOP.
Randy Parraz, an activist who led a recall election against Pearce, said the former political heavyweight's loss was no surprise.
"This is the same Russell Pearce who said he'd never lose a primary," Parraz told The Arizona Republic. "He misjudged the fact that he was no longer a conservative Republican -- he was an extreme Tea Party Republican. There's no comeback for Russell Pearce -- he's done."
As results rolled in, Worsley, 56, welcomed friends and political allies to a backyard party at his north Mesa home and allowed media free access to the gathering.
In his campaign, Worsley followed much the same script as did Jerry Lewis, the political neophyte who defeated Pearce in last year's recall.
Worsley said he was recruited to run by some of the same people who talked Lewis into the seemingly impossible job of trying to bump off Arizona's sitting Senate president, a man who some believed wielded more political power than the governor.
Like Lewis, Worsley stressed his private-sector credentials as a job creator and picked up support from a wide swath of Mesa's old-guard Mormon political establishment.
Worsley also had the unanimous endorsement of the Mesa City Council.
"Thank you, Mesa," Worsley posted on his Facebook page Tuesday night.
Tuesday's results were viewed as a bellwether for the fortunes of the ultraconservative tea-party movement, of whom Pearce has become a leading symbol.
Pearce entered the Legislature in 2000.
He dug in as a budget hawk and a proponent of gun rights and other conservative causes. But his calling card through the years was a raft of bills, many of which became law, aimed at curbing illegal immigration.
His crown jewel, Senate Bill 1070, was signed amid raucous national publicity in early 2010.
But shortly thereafter, Pearce's political fortunes declined rapidly as his hometown Republican base eroded, leading to the recall election.
Many Mesa residents said Pearce had focused so much on immigration that he had forgotten to represent his hometown's interests in the Legislature.
Source
Worsley defeats Pearce for Mesa Senate seat
Posted: Tuesday, August 28, 2012 8:12 pm
By Garin Groff, Tribune
Unofficial results show Russell Pearce is facing his second election defeat in a row — once again to a political newcomer who vowed not to pursue divisive illegal immigration legislation.
SkyMall Founder Bob Worsley is leading Pearce with 56 percent of the vote in the Republican primary, according to early ballots and 100 percent of precincts reporting.
Pearce’s potential loss is a huge blow to a man who some had once considered Arizona’s most powerful politician.
He lost a historic November 2011 recall to charter school executive Jerry Lewis.
In both cases, Pearce lost to fellow Republican members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints who were recruited to run against him.
Worsley campaigned as a more moderate Republican, primarily on immigration, in Mesa District 25.
Worsley said Pearce was part of a legislature that wasn’t pragmatic — and that voters kept telling him they wanted a different approach.
“This new District 25 was ready for a change, a breath of fresh air, something new and the 11-year history of Russell and what he had worked on had worn thin,” Worsley said. “And there was fatigue there.”
Worsley said he ran into Pearce on the campaign trail and had pleasant conversations with him. But he said Pearce was part of a legislature that was too vitriolic.
Worsley said even if people don’t like it, they need to acknowledge that Arizona must have a relationship with the federal government to improve immigration policies and enforcement without a state-focused enforcement-only approach.
“It’s constant confrontation, tit for tat and not a real solution,” Worsley said.
Pearce championed a so-called jobs bill the Legislature passed in 2011, school choice and reducing taxes and government regulation. His signature issue, the anti-illegal immigration bill known as SB 1070, suffered a setback when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down portions of the law.
Pearce’s campaign faced controversies over a Facebook comment he posted that questioned why the suspect in the July 20 Colorado movie theater shooting wasn’t stopped by somebody in the audience. The gun rights proponent later apologized.
Questions were also raised when a group called the “Arizona Teacher’s (sic) Association” endorsed Pearce, as the otherwise unknown organization formed during the election.
Pearce enjoyed endorsements of the Arizona GOP establishment previously and in his recall battle. But Gov. Jan Brewer declined to weigh in this time.
Worsley promoted a more business-friendly environment to create jobs and stimulate economic development. While he didn’t appeal to tea party groups as much as Pearce, Worsley touted his work on social issues. He’s campaigned against same-sex marriage, and had supported a group that fought abortion and sex before marriage.
Pearce was endorsed by Mesa Mayor Scott Smith and the entire City Council.
Pearce avoided a rematch with Lewis because redistricting put Lewis in District 26, where Lewis was unopposed in the primary.
Worsley said he expects a number of new legislators will change the tone of the next session that begins in January.
“I think we’re seeing a sea change, and it’s heading toward civility and let’s work on important things instead of lots of symbolic, trivial legislation,” he said.
If Worsley’s lead holds when all votes are counted, he will face Democrat Greg Gadek in the Nov. 6 general election. District 25 is heavily Republican.
Contact writer: (480) 898-6548 or ggroff@evtrib.com
Primary Election Results |
State Senator - Dist. 25 |
100.0% of Precincts Reporting (37 of 37 Precincts) |
Votes | Percent |
Republican |
WORSLEY, BOB | 12789 | 55.9 |
PEARCE, RUSSELL | 10086 | 44.1 |
22875 | 100.0 |
Bad news - Sinema wins primary in Congressional District 9
The good news is that police state thug Russell Pearce won't be back.
The bad news is that tax and spend socialist Kyrsten Sinema won
in the Democratic primary and we now have to worry about keeping
her out of wallets.
If you support medical marijuana you should run to the polls and
vote against Kyrsten Sinema.
Kyrsten Sinema is the government tyrant who sponsored a bill in the
Arizona House or Senate to slap on outrages 300% percent tax on
medical marijuana.
Source
Sinema, Parker win in Congressional District 9
by Daniel González - Aug. 28, 2012 11:39 PM
The Republic | azcentral.com
Former state Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has won the Democratic primary in Congressional District 9. Paradise Valley Town Councilman Vernon Parker, meanwhile, narrowly bested a field of seven Republicans in his party's primary.
Sinema defeated state Sen. David Schapira and Andrei Cherny, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton.
At a restaurant in east Phoenix, more than 100 supporters of Sinema gathered to watch results come in. When results showed she had a sizable lead, supporters cheered and danced.
"We are feeling optimistic and we are excited," Sinema said.
Cherny supporters were gathered at an upscale home in north central Phoenix watching the results on cell phones and i-Pads.
Cherny shook hands with supporters as his wife Stephanie wiped away tears.
Though he did not go so far as to concede the race, he said, "Clearly tonight was not the outcome we were hoping for."
"Yes, we came up short today," he added.
Among Republicans, Parker -- running for Congress a second time -- held off challenges from retired Air Force pilot Wendy Rogers, who lost a legislative race against Schapira two years ago; and former Chandler City Councilman Martin Sepulveda, touting his combat military record.
At a restaurant in the Arcadia neighborhood of Phoenix, Parker said he was "elated" by the early numbers, especially the results in Tempe and Awahtukee.
"Those are areas I have not been strongest in," he said.
Other Republicans running are Scottsdale City Councilwoman Lisa Borowsky, aviation businessman Travis Grantham, former CIA agent Leah Campos Schandlbauer and retired life-insurance executive Jeff Thompson. Grantham was trailing Parker, Rogers and Sepulveda in early voting.
Regardless of who wins the primaries, the race is considered a tossup in November.
Arizona gained District 9 during redistricting because of a decade of population growth. Its Republican incumbent, U.S. Rep. Ben Quayle, opened the door for a free-for-all after decidng to run in District 6, which includes the safely conservative northeast Valley, against U.S. Rep. David Schweikert.
The seven Republican candidates have campaigned hard to attract the district's large number of independent voters.
The three Democrats have been involved in a heated campaign that became increasingly negative.
Covering parts of Phoenix, Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Tempe, Chandler, Mesa and Ahwatukee Foothills, it is the only congressional district in the state where independents outnumber voters from both major parties. The area has swung for both Democratic President Barack Obama and Republican President George W. Bush.
Primary Election Results |
U.S. Rep. in Congress - Dist. 9 |
100.0% of Precincts Reporting (141 of 141 Precincts) |
Votes | Percent |
Democrat |
SINEMA, KYRSTEN | 12329 | 42.0 |
SCHAPIRA, DAVID | 9043 | 30.8 |
CHERNY, ANDREI | 7978 | 27.2 |
29350 | 100.0 |
|
Republican |
PARKER, VERNON B. | 8863 | 23.1 |
ROGERS, WENDY | 8060 | 21.0 |
SEPULVEDA, MARTIN | 7719 | 20.1 |
GRANTHAM, TRAVIS | 6862 | 17.9 |
BOROWSKY, LISA | 2652 | 6.9 |
THOMPSON, JEFF | 2627 | 6.8 |
CAMPOS SCHANDLBAUER, LEAH | 1600 | 4.2 |
38383 | 100.0 |
Russell Pearce beaten but still a force
Source
Russell Pearce beaten but still a force
2nd loss puts him at political crossroads
by Yvonne Wingett Sanchez - Aug. 31, 2012 12:08 AM
The Republic | azcentral.com
Russell Pearce's primary loss this week may spell the end of his legislative career but could open the door for him to continue to push his agenda in Arizona and on the national stage.
The GOP heavyweight who led the Arizona Senate, authored the state's controversial immigration law Senate Bill 1070 and vaulted into the national spotlight with his hard-line crusade against illegal immigration, failed to make the post-recall political comeback he'd hoped for in Tuesday's state legislative primary election.
"He took an incredible gamble, and he lost," said Mike O'Neil, a public-opinion pollster. "I think it says his heyday has run its course. He had one issue and a very extreme position on that one issue. I think they're (Mesa voters) saying Russell Pearce is too extreme. We've had enough -- ease up."
But Pearce is still powerful in the Arizona GOP, serving as the the party's second-in-command. Some insiders believe Pearce could soon make a run for the top post, where he would then have the power to influence the party's priorities and messages.
He also likely still has a role as one of the national voices of illegal-immigration enforcement, which remains a hot issue nationally. GOP leaders at the Republican National Convention endorsed an immigration-platform plank that supports Arizona-style laws aimed at cracking down on illegal immigration.
"I don't think this was necessarily a referendum on immigration policy," said Dan Stein, president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a Washington, D.C., group that advocates more immigration enforcement. "I don't see any diminution in broad public support for candidates that are wanting to support state-level, Arizona-type models."
Campaign missteps
Throughout the primary, Pearce attempted to rebrand himself as a politician who cared about issues beyond illegal immigration, more than a dozen political observers and public officials told The Arizona Republic. But, in the end, he could not overcome the perception that he was obsessed with just one issue.
Voters in this Mesa district, which includes a heavy mix of Mormons and Catholics, grew weary of Pearce's "mean-spirited" tone of wanting to starve out "every last soul" who was undocumented, observers said.
Pearce's tone on illegal immigration turned off members of both faiths, said Mesa Councilman Dave Richins, a Mormon.
"The dehumanizing tone of illegal immigration quit resonating because people knew better, they'd served them (immigrants) in their hometowns and they knew the situations they were trying to escape," Richins said, referring to church missions. "You had Mormons and Catholics who looked at that rhetoric and said, 'Wait a minute, that's not right.' "
And at a time when Pearce was one of the Legislature's most powerful politicians, he stopped communicating with his hometown officials on issues other than illegal immigration, from impact fees to education.
"There was a lack of consideration, a lack of trying to understand or learn what our concerns were or what we could offer to the discussion," Mesa Mayor Scott Smith said. "We were on different pages, and that bred a lot of frustrations."
Pearce's campaign, much like his political career, was wounded by missteps, most of them self-inflicted, according to observers and his own campaign manager.
The public lashed out against Pearce for a Facebook post questioning the heroism of the victims of the Colorado movie-theater shooting. He was dogged by perceptions that he is motivated by racism, with his opponents using his own e-mails to allege SB 1070 was racially motivated. He was haunted by allegations from the recall election that he or his campaign put up a sham candidate to pull votes away from Pearce's opponent.
Pearce's one-time ally Gov. Jan Brewer did not endorse him during the primary. His opponent outspent and outraised him. And even his longtime friend, political consultant Chuck Coughlin, advised him early on to not run.
Pearce's campaign manager, Constantin Querard, acknowledged Pearce was partly to blame for the negative news but said Democrats and the media demonized him.
"The sheer volume of lies can be tough to overcome," he said. "And after a while, it's hard to come back from that. You get here by an accumulation of a lot of factors -- some of the wounds are self-inflicted; most of them are -- but at the end of the day, it doesn't matter."
Pearce did not return repeated calls for comment.
His brother Lester Pearce, who lost his primary race for Maricopa County supervisor, defended his brother's record before the election and blamed Democrats, moderate Republicans, attorneys and the media for Russell's expected loss.
Asked what Russell would do if he was defeated, Lester said, "Riding off in the sunset and enjoying life."
Long public career
With his barrel chest and gruff style, Pearce, 65, is an Arizona native with long ties to the Mesa district he once represented. He and his wife, LuAnne, have five children and 13 grandchildren.
Pearce has been a public servant almost his entire adult life.
He worked for the Maricopa County Sheriff's Office for 21 years, starting as a deputy and moving up to chief deputy under Sheriff Joe Arpaio. He was shot in the line of duty in 1977 during a struggle with three Latino teens.
Tom Freestone, a former county supervisor, has known Pearce since 1978, when he would lobby the Board of Supervisors on behalf of the sheriff's office.
Freestone, like many of Pearce's friends, pointed out that his entire career should not be overshadowed by his focus on immigration.
He recalled that Pearce "gets committed to something, attacks the problem full-steam ahead and doesn't raise his head up. That's how he got things done."
Before becoming a lawmaker, Pearce served as a justice of the peace and director of the state Motor Vehicle Division.
Gov. Jane Dee Hull fired him from the MVD in 1999 after state officials accused Pearce and two aides of altering the drunken-driving records of a Tucson woman so she could keep her license. Pearce denied involvement, which the Attorney General investigated. That office ultimately determined it was a personnel issue and not a criminal matter.
Pearce served in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2000 to 2008, then moved to the Senate in 2009.
His GOP colleagues in 2010 elected him Senate president. His tenure as leader of the Senate was fraught with controversy, including limiting media access and allowing senators to carry firearms on the Senate floor. He was also widely criticized for taking tens of thousands of dollars worth of free trips and game tickets from the Fiesta Bowl.
That year, he sponsored SB 1070 and rocketed to the national spotlight, where he became a hero to supporters of illegal-immigration enforcement.
His tenure coincided with the rise of the tea party, which like Pearce, promoted strict conservative interpretations of the Constitution. That "anti-government, anti-tax, anti-immigrant mentality really helped him push bills through the Legislature," said Todd Landfried of Arizona Employers for Immigration Reform, which opposes SB 1070.
But Pearce went too far with some of his colleagues in 2011 when he introduced a series of immigration-related bills, including a pair aimed at mounting a challenge to birthright citizenship. and others that required businesses to become immigration agents. The business community stepped in and 60 CEOs signed a letter urging Pearce to stop the barrage of immigration bills while the state tried to jump-start the economy and bring jobs to Arizona.
"Everyone wants to fix illegal immigration, but he's going way further than anyone else and long after it makes sense," said Tyler Montague, a Mesa Republican who voted for Pearce every election during the last decade up until last year, and then helped run Jerry Lewis' campaign against Pearce in the November recall.
People just want to move past this era."
Next steps
It's unclear what's next for Russell Pearce. Some speculate he could go on a national speaking tour or become the leader of a political-action committee. Others suggested he could play a larger role in state party politics.
Coughlin advised Pearce before the primary to give up on vindication and, instead, start a national PAC to spread his hard-line message on illegal immigration to the faithful.
"I didn't think, as his friend and somebody who knows him and knows his heart on these matters ... that it was in his best interest to run," Coughlin said, adding that he encouraged Pearce to go national with his message because "he has a very passionate base of support that feel that he's being martyred and victimized."
Pearce didn't take the advice, and Coughlin offered his condolences to his friend on election night via text message.
Querard said Pearce's career is far from over and believes the former lawmaker could be more effective as a leader of the "conservative movement," without the constraints that come with being an elected official.
"In Arizona and nationally, he's still a big draw," Querard said before the election. "Win or lose, he will remain a hero to a really large, meaningful number of people who have the utmost respect and admiration for him."
Insiders pointed out that Pearce could play a more powerful role in state politics. On election day, he was handing out fliers and stumping for precinct-committee candidates. The current GOP chairman's term expires in January.
Stein said Pearce's loss has no broader implications nationally. He said many Americans still support conservative measures to combat illegal immigration, including tough immigration enforcement.
"I don't think there's any real national lesson here; it just shows that every legislative district is unique and different," Stein said.
Reach the reporter at yvonne.wingett@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-4712.
If you love taxes vote for Kyrsten Sinema
Source
District 9 race: Vernon Parker, Kyrsten Sinema set for hard fight
by Rebekah L. Sanders and Rob O'Dell - Sept. 10, 2012 11:30 PM
The Republic | azcentral.com
Arizona's hottest race for Congress pits two unconventional but experienced candidates in what is likely the state's most competitive district.
Republican Vernon Parker and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, emerging from hard-fought primaries in the newly created 9th Congressional District, have wasted no time lacing up their gloves for the Nov. 6 general election.
Both candidates are attempting to paint the other as too extreme for the toss-up district packed with swing voters. Each claims to be the moderate choice, focused on jobs and the middle class. But each proposes widely different ideas for improving the economy.
Sinema and Parker lay claim to inspirational personal stories, appeal to diverse demographic groups and are expected to draw a cascade of national support as the major parties battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Hot-button issues in the presidential race, like President Barack Obama's health-care overhaul, are expected to dominate the down-ballot race.
The two candidates are likely to fight over the same turf in the district, unusual in these days of polarized politics and partisan voting districts.
An Arizona Republic analysis of primary votes showed Parker and Sinema polled strongly in the same areas -- north central Phoenix, around Paradise Valley and Ahwatukee Foothills -- where they have spent much of their political careers and where many independents live. Both fared poorly in south Scottsdale and central and north Tempe.
The candidates are likely to slug it out hardest in the precincts where they fared well, while trying to minimize losses in areas where they struggled.
Voters "have a front-row seat to a title match," said Republican political consultant Stan Barnes, who calls both candidates friends but is not involved with either campaign. "Both Vernon Parker and Kyrsten Sinema are outgoing, dynamic, unafraid minorities within their respective parties. ... Each candidate brings a certain specialness, a certain newness and a lot of energy to this new district."
Of the three competitive congressional districts in Arizona -- the others are the 1st in northeast Arizona and the 2nd in southern Arizona -- the 9th District could be the most closely watched, Barnes said. The district, which covers parts of Phoenix, Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa and Chandler, means the race will unfold in front of many of the state's power brokers. That could lend the district's winner additional influence in Arizona, Barnes said, as the representative of a key urban part of the state.
The winner will have to gain an edge in fundraising, motivate voters and appeal to independents.
The candidates
Parker, 52, and Sinema, 36, say they hope to stick to talking about issues in the campaign. But their personal stories could become selling points.
Parker recalls being raised by his grandmother in a rough neighborhood in Long Beach, Calif. Sinema tells of her stepfather losing his job and the family moving temporarily into an abandoned gas station.
They found paths to success through education. Parker went from community college to earning a law degree from Georgetown University, followed by service in the administrations of both Bush presidents. Sinema went to college at 16, became a social worker, ultimately earned four degrees, and now teaches at Arizona State University.
They've each spent years in politics. In 2008, Parker won a seat on the Paradise Valley Town Council and served for two years as mayor. He ran for Congress in 2010, losing to now-U.S. Rep Ben Quayle. Sinema joined the state House of Representatives in 2004 and was elected to the state Senate in 2010. Both resigned their posts to focus on campaigns.
Lastly, each represents a minority demographic. If elected, Parker would become one of the few African-American Republicans in the House.
A small slice of 9th District voters are African-American, though minorities make up more than 40 percent of its population.
If elected, Sinema would be the first openly bisexual member of Congress.
Sinema, who led a campaign that blocked an initiative to ban gay marriage in Arizona, is backed by gay-rights and women's groups.
The district
Arizona gained the 9th District after a decade of population growth.
It is home to more registered Republicans, but the voting history of residents in the new district show they have recently favored Democrats, including Obama in 2008. They also favored statewide Democratic candidates in 2010, despite the fact that Arizona leaned heavily conservative in that cycle. It is the only district in the state with more registered independents than voters of either major political party.
Swing voters will be key, said John Loredo, a Democratic political consultant and former Arizona House minority leader who is not affiliated with either candidate.
"That has to be front and center: trying to appeal to those independent voters," said Loredo.
The Republic analysis of primary-ballot data shows a race that is up for grabs geographically.
Sinema did well in many of the north central Phoenix precincts that she represented at the state Legislature, while losing in areas dominated by one of her Democratic primary opponents, Tempe legislator David Schapira. His endorsement of Sinema could help her capture his supporters in the general election.
Meanwhile, Parker benefited from his ties to north central Phoenix, where he ran two years ago for Congress and near where he lives. Parker was weakest in the primary strongholds of opponents Wendy Rogers, a longtime Tempe resident, Travis Grantham, who runs a Mesa business, and Martin Sepulveda, a former Chandler City councilman. Rogers and Grantham asked their supporters to back Parker.
The candidates are expected to court swing voters, especially in Ahwatukee. Capturing the independent vote could be the key to victory in several precincts where Parker and Sinema did well despite higher turnout from the opposing party.
The odds
Barnes, the Republican political consultant, thinks the odds are good for both candidates despite national House campaign trackers listing the 9th District as leaning Democratic.
"The race is open to either candidate to win, and it will depend on turnout to choose a winner," he said.
Both political parties pledge to spend money.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reserved $2.8 million in television time in the Valley to be shared between Sinema and the 1st District race.
National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Daniel Scarpinato said the GOP will support Parker.
"With Kyrsten Sinema as the nominee, this is a race we cannot walk away from," he said.
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